Welcome to the Reducing Vulnerabilities and Promoting Resilience website. FORREX Forum for Research and Extension in Natural Resources, in partnership with the Pacific Forestry Centre (PFC) and the University of Northern British Columbia (UNBC) has embarked on a project "Reducing vulnerabilities and promoting resilience of BC’s natural and human systems through adaptation of post-disturbance land management options." This two-year project which is scheduled for completion in December 2011, is funded by the Future Forest Ecosystem Science Council (FFESC).

Background

Mountain pine beetle infestation – Quesnel Forest District

The most demonstrable effects of climate change may be shifting natural disturbance regimes. In the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II, which highlights the climate change related Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities, it was concluded with very high confidence (at least a 9 in 10 chance) that the frequency and severity of wildfire, insect outbreaks, drought, and extreme weather events will increase in North America in coming decades as a result of climate change (IPCC 2007). A regional assessment of Canada’s vulnerability to climate change reached the same conclusions, but noted that the highest certainty of shifting disturbance regimes will very likely be in British Columbia (Walker and Sydneysmith 2008).

Thus, a major challenge facing natural resource managers and policy makers in BC will be in adapting post-disturbance land management decisions and activities to the climate change-related shift in natural disturbance regimes. Addressing this challenge would ensure that any negative impacts will be less severe than would be experienced had no adaptation occurred. Adaptation actions taken by the provincial government, industry, communities, and individuals must be based on implicit or explicit understanding of vulnerability. In turn, the vulnerability of BC’s forest landbase depends on the effectiveness and timing of adaptation and the distribution of coping capacity, which varies spatially and temporally among sectors.

Goal and Objectives
The goal of this project is to develop a decision support framework that can be applied at a variety of scales to assist in the development of post-disturbance land management and adaptation strategies to help create and/or maintain forested ecosystems that will be resilient to the expected shifts in natural disturbance regimes resulting from climate change.

The objectives of the project are to increase the knowledge of provincial, management unit level, and community/site level decision-makers on

1. the potential shifts in frequency and severity of natural disturbance types (e.g., fire, insects, pathogens), attributable to climate change;
2. the potential effects of natural disturbances on natural and human systems;
3. potential post-disturbance land management options and adaptation strategies to address climate change and their incremental effects on natural and human systems relative to those of the natural disturbance; and
4. resource value (ecological, social, economic) trade-offs and risks of different management options in response to climate change and whether the management options result in more or less resilient ecosystems and communities.

Components
The project has several interrelated components that will be used to achieve the project goal and objectives.

1. The decision support framework will
   1. show decision-makers where to go for answers to help guide them in reducing the climate change impacts of shifting natural disturbance on forest and range productivity and human systems;
   2. allow decision-makers to address when, where, and what type of management interventions could be applied to support healthy ecosystems and communities under threat of increased natural disturbance due to climate change; and
   3. be developed within the context of an adaptive management framework, with the aim of reducing uncertainty over time and improving future management.
   Leader: Kathie Swift, FORREX



Forest fire – Tweedsmuir Provincial Park

2. Topical syntheses will synthesize best available information and research on
   1. the effects of natural disturbance on values of interest, and
   2. the incremental effects of management of natural disturbances on values of interest:
      1. Watershed function
         Leaders: Todd Redding, Okanagan College/FORREX and Kevin Bladon, Thompson Rivers University
      2. Forest Dynamics and Forest Carbon
         Leader: Kathie Swift
      3. Conservation biology and ecology
         Leaders: Pedro Lara Almuedo and Don Gayton, FORREX
      4. Human dimensions including First Nations
         Leaders: Ajit Krishnaswamy, Larry Joseph, Ellen Simmons, and Gina Thomas, FORREX
3. Natural disturbance regimes and projections will
   1. synthesize information on projections for changes to natural disturbance regimes as a result of climate change; and
   2. define the regions in British Columbia most susceptible to a shifting disturbance regime.
   Leaders: Phil Burton and Steve Taylor, Natural Resources Canada - Pacific Forestry Centre; Sean Haughian and Bryan Pettit, University of Northern British Columbia
4. A Community of Practice (Wenger et al 2002) will
   1. be developed and will be comprised of key decision makers and experts involved in reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience of forested ecosystems and natural resource dependent communities in light of climate change; and
   2. help link the decision-makers with the experts who have the information to help them make their decisions.
   Leader: Alan Wiensczyk, FORREX

The Team and Collaborators
The project team is comprised of FORREX, Natural Resources Canada - Pacific Forestry Centre, and University of Northern British Columbia staff.

• Alan Wiensczyk – Ecosystems and Stand Management Extension Specialist, FORREX
• Kathie Swift – Early Stand Dynamics Extension Specialist, Extension Services Business Leader, FORREX
• Pedro Lara Almuedo – Conservation Biology Extension Specialist, FORREX
• Don Gayton – Dry Forest and Grassland Ecology Extension Specialist, FORREX
• Ajit Krishnaswamy – Socio-economics Extension Specialist, FORREX
• Ellen Simmons – Aboriginal Forestry/Indigenous Knowledge Extension Specialist, FORREX
• Georgina Thomas – Aboriginal Forestry/Indigenous Knowledge Extension Specialist, FORREX
• Larry Joseph – Aboriginal Forestry/Indigenous Knowledge Extension Specialist, FORREX
• Todd Redding – Watershed Management Extension Specialist, FORREX; Professor, Okanagan College
• Kevin Bladon – Assistant Professor, Thompson Rivers University
• Phil Burton – Manager Northern Projects, Natural Resources Canada - Pacific Forestry Centre
• Steve Taylor – Forestry Officer, Natural Resources Canada - Pacific Forestry Centre
• Sean Haughian – Graduate Student, University of Northern British Columbia
• Bryan Pettit – Graduate Student, University of Northern British Columbia

Dothistoma needle blight in lodgepole pine stand – Nangeese River

Project collaborators include

• Michael Peterson – Williams Lake TSA Future Forest Estate Planning Working Group, BC Ministry of Forests and Range
• Kathy Hopkins – Climate Change and Forest Carbon, BC Ministry of Forests and Range
• Jenny Feick – Climate Change Adaptation and Stewardship, BC Ministry of Environment
• Gerry Fraser – Interfor

Since January 2010, team members have been working to complete the topical syntheses and the natural disturbance regimes and projections. It is anticipated that these will be completed by the end of 2010 and will be used to inform the decision support framework. The development of the project Community of Practice is also currently underway and will also be used to inform the decision support framework.

For more information on this project please contact:

Alan Wiensczyk (Project Manager)
Ecosystems and Stand Management Extension Specialist
FORREX Forum for Research and Extension in Natural Resources
400-1488 4th Ave.
Prince George, BC, V2L 4Y2
Phone: (250) 614-4354
Alan.Wiensczyk@forrex.org

Literature Cited
Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. M.K. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. can der Linden, and C.E. Hanson (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, (pp. 976).

Walker, I.J., and R. Sydneysmith. 2008. British Columbia. In Lemmon, D.S., F.J. Warren, J. Lacroix, and E. Bush (eds.). From impacts to adaptation: Canada in a changing climate 2007. Government of Canada, Ottawa, On, (p. 329-386).

Wenger, E., R. McDermott, and W. Snyder. 2002. Cultivating communities of practice: a guide to managing knowledge. Harvard Business School Press.